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US elections 2020: Biden and the uncertain Senate

Outlooks & Research

BNP Paribas Asset Management

With Joe Biden set to become the 46th US president, investors are wondering what next, especially since it remains unclear whether the Democrats will have (a form of) control of the Senate and hence whether they will be able to enact much of their policy agenda.

For now, US equity markets have welcomed the election result, but renewed volatility looks likely as runoff elections approach in early January for two Senate seats. These two runoffs appear likely to decide the balance of power in Congress and the size of any stimulus package for an economy under renewed pressure as the COVID-19 caseload rises.

  • What can investors expect in the early days of the new administration in terms of executive orders and appointments? How will Biden go about tackling his number one priority, the pandemic? How quickly will he change tack on climate policy?
  • How will he deal with both a conservative-dominated Supreme Court and conflicting views in his own party on the court’s appointment system, the use of regulation (of tech companies), and tackling income and racial inequality?
  • What can we expect on foreign and trade policy after the tumultuous Trump years?

In our latest research paper, ‘US elections 2020: Biden and the uncertain state‘, our team review these topics as well as the market implications of a potentially divided Congress for policy implementation and a major fiscal stimulus.


Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients.

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